American think tank the U.S. economy entered a recession in 2019-txc.cc

American think-tank: 2019 U.S. economic recession reporter and Beijing reported the United States presidential election has entered the final sprint stage. In September 7th, the Economist Intelligence Unit issued a research report, the U.S. presidential election (hereinafter referred to as the "report"), Hilary · Clinton would win the 2016 presidential election, but she would only ruling a term. The report points out that the business cycle will reverse in 2019 and that the US economy will sink into depression. If the external shocks occur, the time will be advanced. The "report" predicts the U.S. economy will overheat at the end of 2018, when the labor market will be close to full employment, consumer price inflation rate will exceed 2%, the Fed’s monetary policy tightening pace will lag. In the 2020 US election, voters would be disillusioned with the government’s failure to maintain economic growth, thereby abandoning the Democratic party." Joseph Lake says. Focusing on issues related to the U.S. presidential election, twenty-first Century economic report in Beijing, the EIU economist Joseph Lake responsible for the report of the interview. Trump won only 25% chances: "twenty-first Century" report predicted that Hilary will win the presidential election, but Trump will not elected and Britain from Europe as the black swan event? How big is the chance? Joseph Lake: the general election situation in the United States is totally different from the British referendum. The poll support rate in Britain is very close, and the gap is not so obvious, which is optimistic. But the latest polls show Hilary ahead of the U.S. presidential election, the two candidates are known to every family in the United States, it is difficult to change the minds of the voters the impression, so I want to win back support is very difficult in the next few weeks Trump, this situation is more obvious than in europe. But the risks can’t be completely eliminated. We believe that the probability of winning the Trump for about 25% weeks before the election, if the occurrence of disruptive events may affect the election, such as the occurrence of large-scale terrorist attacks. Polls show that the more panic the voters are, the more likely they are to choose the hawkish leader who gives priority to national security. Another opportunity for Trump was a major blunder in Hilary’s campaign. As of now, the mail leak door "in the content and not what the real damage to Hilary’s chances of being elected, we believe that Trump will continue to use this issue against Hilary in the next two months, but unless messages really has irreparably exposed, otherwise there will be a big impact. Twenty-first Century: Hilary will only be in power. What is the basis for judging the term of office? Joseph Lake: the EIU prediction of the 200 countries in the world political and economic future 5 years, we determine the U.S. economy will enter a recession in 2019 years. The United States has 7 consecutive years of economic expansion, many from the trend, the U.S. economy is still healthy, but also has 3 years of development, the 2019 will gradually into recession. The reason is similar to the previous economic recession, the interest rate will curb domestic demand, the external shocks may be worse. So by 2020, the unemployment rate will rise, and the public will be unhappy with the government.

美国智库:2019年美国经济进入衰退期本报记者和佳北京报道美国总统大选已进入最后的冲刺期。 9月7日,经济学人智库发布了美国大选的研究报告(以下简称《报告》),预测希拉里·克林顿将赢得2016年总统大选,但她只会执政一个任期。《报告》指出,2019年商业周期将发生逆转,美国经济将重陷萧条,若发生外部冲击该时间点或将提前。 《报告》预测2018年末美国经济将出现过热,届时劳动力市场将接近充分就业,消费价格通胀率将超过2%,美联储收紧货币政策的节奏将滞后。“2020年美国大选时,选民将对政府无法保持经济增长而大失所望,从而抛弃民主党。” Joseph Lake说。围绕美国大选的相关问题,21世纪经济报道在北京对该报告的负责人、经济学人智库经济学家Joseph Lake进行了专访。特朗普胜出几率仅25%《21世纪》:报告预测希拉里将赢得总统大选,但特朗普当选会不会和英国脱欧一样成为黑天鹅事件?几率有多大?Joseph Lake:美国大选的形势和英国脱欧公投是完全不同的。英国脱欧前的民调支持率其实很接近,没有那么明显的差距,是大家乐观预计了。但美国大选最新的民调显示希拉里大幅领先,而这两个候选人在美国是家喻户晓的,很难改变选民脑海中的印象,所以在接下来的几周特朗普想赢回支持非常难,这个形势比脱欧要明显得多。但风险是无法完全排除的。我们认为特朗普胜出的概率约为25%,大选前几周如果发生颠覆性的事件可能会影响选情,比如美国发生大规模恐怖袭击。民调显示恐袭后选民越恐慌,就越倾向于选择优先考虑国家安全的“鹰派”领导人。特朗普的另一个机会则是希拉里竞选过程出现重大失误。截至目前,“邮件门”中泄密的内容并没有哪些真正损害希拉里的当选机会,我们相信特朗普在接下来的两个月会继续利用这一问题打击希拉里,但除非邮件真的有猛料揭露出来,否则不会有大的影响。《21世纪》:希拉里只会执政一个任期是基于哪些因素判断得出的?Joseph Lake:经济学人智库对全球200个国家未来五年的政治和经济进行预测,我们判断美国经济将在2019年左右进入衰退期。美国经济的扩张已经连续7年了,从很多趋势来看,美国经济目前还算健康,还能有3年的发展,2019将渐渐走入衰退。原因与此前多次经济萧条类似,利率水平将抑制内需,外部冲击可能再雪上加霜。所以到2020年大选之际,美国失业率将上升,民众对政府不满,希拉里将很难连任。希拉里料难通过TPP《21世纪》:希拉里和特朗普都已明确表态反对TPP,TPP获得通过的可能性有多大?Joseph Lake:美国总统候选人希拉里和特朗普都已明确表态,若当选总统将不会支持TPP,这反映了今年逆全球化、贸易主义抬头的大趋势。TPP仍有一丝希望通过,这要看奥巴马和国会中支持TPP的成员能在多大程度上努力,使TPP在新总统就任之前的“跛鸭期”获得通过。希拉里在竞选期间对TPP的表态主要由于TPP在政治上不受欢迎。当选总统之后,她的立场也有可能会再次扭转,以前的美国总统也出现过类似的做法,就任前后言行不一。她可能会就TPP的具体条款进行重新谈判,再把新的协议递交国会。重新谈判后的条约也有可能就不叫TPP了,因为TPP在很多美国人心中已经是一个“坏协议”。但这也是非常难的,因为“贸易”在美国已成为一个很有争议的问题。并且在此次美国大选中,我们预测共和党将保持对众院的掌控,所以希拉里担任总统之后想做任何事都会非常难,推行的政策将受到限制。我个人的观点是,由于美国是一个很大的经济体,TPP对美国经济不会产生太大的影响,对中国也一样。TPP若能获准,最大的受益者是越南、马来西亚等国家。《21世纪》:如果希拉里如大家预期当选美国总统,对于中美双边关系会有怎样的影响?如何平衡政治与经济关系?Joseph Lake:在外交关系上,希拉里会采取比奥巴马更强硬的态度,“亚洲再平衡”政策力度会超过奥巴马,这将使中美的政治关系进一步剑拔弩张。但这两个世界最大的经济体需要有积极的经济关系,因此两国会力克在政治上的分歧,在气候变化、双边经贸上加强合作。两国经贸关系会和奥巴马执政时期差不多,一部分也取决于TPP是否会通过。如果奥巴马能推动TPP的达成(希拉里应该很希望如此),会很大程度上缓解希拉里的压力,使她上任后可以把更多精力放在国内的问题上,而不用去想如何建立新的贸易协议,因为那样又会把中国排除在外从而引发不满。尽管特朗普的孤立主义会使中国有机会提升在世界政治格局中的地位,但相对于特朗普,希拉里成为总统仍是一个更好的结果。特朗普上任后很可能会提高中国产品的进口关税,把中国列为货币操纵国,导致两国双边经贸关系的恶化,中美BIT谈判也可能会无限期冻结甚至终止。他政策的不确定性对于全球经济的健康发展也是一个巨大威胁,会殃及中国经济。更多精彩内容欢迎搜索关注微信公众号:腾讯财经(financeapp)。相关的主题文章: